Ecology & populations · SL/HL

Lincoln index

Estimate population size from capture and recapture.

Your values

Number formats & units

Use decimal dots in datasets. Single values also accept decimal commas and scientific notation such as 1.2e-3 or 1.2 × 10⁻³.

Lincoln Index Population Calculator inputs

Calculated locally. No account or input upload.

Result & working

Example

The calculator is loading. The worked example is also shown below.

Copy & export

Formula & example

The relationship

N=n1n2n3N=\frac{n_1n_2}{n_3}
What the variables mean
SymbolMeaning
n1n_{1}Number initially captured and marked.
n2n_{2}Total caught on the second occasion.
n3n_{3}Marked individuals in the second capture.

Worked example

Initially captured and marked n₁
80
Total second capture n₂
70
Marked recaptured n₃
14

Estimated N = 400

Follow the example steps
  1. N = n₁n₂/n₃ = 80 × 70 / 14 = 400

Common mistakes

Divide by the number of marked individuals recaptured.

Incorrect approach

n₁ = 20, n₂ = 30, n₃ = 5: N = 20 × 30

Correct approach

N = 20 × 30/5 = 120

More checks before you submit
  • If no marked individuals are recaptured, the simple Lincoln estimate is undefined.
Method notes

The estimate depends on assumptions such as marks remaining identifiable, sufficient mixing, and similar capture probability.